Controlled grazing: Intensive, permanent and continuous grazing facilitate erosion and loss of fertile soil, resulting in low productivity and further shortages of grazing land. (2014), it was concluded that a general tendency of increasing warm temperature, extreme variability and inconsistent precipitation trend was recorded in Ethiopia. Therefore, it is pertinent for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigating measures to combat climate change in the Basin. Therefore, in order to know the yields, annual rainfall is less important for prediction. Barley, wheat, horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops. However, studies focusing on Zambia are still limited and future climate variability is poorly understood. Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporal variabilities. Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). During these seasons, rainfall is more highly variable than the main rainy season of the area. This is because the temperature and the amount of energy reaching the surface isdirectly related with the directness of the sun.The direction of rain bearing winds (leeward or windward side) also determines the temperaturevariations in mountainous regions. Winter (December, January and February)In winter, the overhead sun is far south of equator. The variation inthe amount of solar radiation received daily is small throughout the year. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. In contrast to the kiremit season, the five years' moving average annual rainfall of the bega season during the period 19802014 was highly variable. Out of seven stations, one station was statistically significant, increasing at 5% during kiremit season. The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. Therefore, appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be included in the development agenda to reverse the trend. The possible reason may be monthly, sub-monthly time scale, temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature, which are determinant factors of production. 2014). The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. Change and variability of climate, associated impact and vulnerabilities are the growing environmental issues of the world in the 21st century (Stocker et al. The minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively. Many researchers have undertaken trend analysis studies of the climate in some other parts of Ethiopia (Addisu et al. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Center Task Force Report: Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Analysis of rainfall variability and farmers perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia, This site uses cookies. The present results are in agreement with Parry (2007), who stated that due to a prolonged increase in the emission of gases through human activities and expansion of industry, the surface temperature has increased by about 1 C. The analysis of vulnerability related to climate changes in Ethiopia implies that in the coming decades climate variability and volatility will threaten the social and economic order (damage to natural resources, agricultural productivity, water resources and ecosystems); therefore, the incidence and intensity of drought and famine occurrence is likely to increase. Autumn (September, October and November)Autumnis the season of the year between summer and winter. For instance, unlikeother parts of Ethiopia, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature. In this study, we analyse global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate the qualitative aspects of change and trends in temperature and precipitation indices. Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. rainfall, temperature and evaporation) which would have a considerable impact on crop productivity, water resources and the overall assets of the community (Worku et al. This is probably due to the fluctuation and variability of the seasonal and inter-annual rainfall pattern of the Beressa watershed during the last few decades, as indicated in Table3, which is similar to other studies (Muhire & Ahmed 2015; Zhao et al. Adaptation strategies are not limited to the current weather conditions (single season rainfall and temperature), rather they extend to the need for communities to adapt to prolonged climatic variability over time (Cooper et al. Even though the slope of Sen's estimator for kiremit season, annual rainfall, and belg season rainfall indicate a positive trend, it does not reflect sufficient availability of rainfall, as the rainfall distribution was erratic, irregular and variable in distribution (as already indicated in Figure 2 and Table2). Our study provides a novel overview of expected climate trends in Zambia, which can act as guidelines for strategic planning of flood and drought prevention. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of. Although atmospheric moisture content increases, this is more than compensated for by higher air temperatures, leading to declining RH. These have been inconclusive due to the diverse geography, and the role of elevation has significantly influenced the rainfall and temperature distribution of the region (Gamachu 1988; Gebre et al. 2005). Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. All crop production shows considerably high correlation with maximum temperature and stronger correlation with barley, while in the case of minimum temperature, poor correlation was observed for all crops. Spatiotemporal Patterns and Distribution of Temperature and Rainfall in Ethiopia, 5.5. About 60 percent of the rain is in autumn and 40 percent in spring. In this regard, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a widely used method employed by many scholars across the globe (Oliver 1980; Apaydin et al. Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. Previous Topic. Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. The study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N. In the study area, June is the sowing period for barley and wheat crops. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. Also important are promoting high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and having new and higher-bred animals. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall Rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. With respect to the statistically significant level, only barley and wheat crops are significantly related to belg and kiremit rainfall. Tesfa Worku, Deepak Khare, S. K. Tripathi; Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall and temperature, and its implications for crop production. This report compiles information from a wide variety of data and information sources. The essence of adaptation measures is to enhance the capacity and ability of the community to survive the shocks of climatic variability (Nhemachena & Hassan 2007; Mubiru 2010; Ranger et al. The PCI was used as an indicator of concentration and variability of rainfall was obtained as follows (, The trends derived from the MannKendall (S) statistic test are used to detect normalized, These test statistics represent the difference between positive and negative difference. Crop production showed high correlation with belg and kiremit rainfall; only annual rainfall and barley crops showed stronger correlation. To avoid the generalities inherent in regional projections, projections focussing on an individual country are necessary. The correlation between rainfall during the months of MaySeptember and crops has a positive relationship, except in the cases of beans, peas and chickpeas, which are inversely correlated with rainfall during the month of June. The results from the coefficient of variations shown in Table2 revealed that in comparison with the kiremit rainfall season, during the bega and belg seasons rainfall varies considerably more. The mean annual temperature varied between 13 and 15.5 C, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature varied between 5 and 9.5 C, respectively. 2005). 2012; Fazzini et al. 2016). Moving average rainfall and temperature can be obtained by using the following equation: Inverse distance weighted interpolation methods (IDW) have been used in order to analyse annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. 2015). For instance belg (spring) rain is more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit (summer season) rain. It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily T min , T max , and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. After total observation of the 35-year period, a record 16 years (45.7%) were lower than the total annual rainfall of the area. For instance, the mean annual rainfall distribution ranges from > 2000 mm over the southwestern highlands to a minimum of < 300 mm over the southeastern and northwestern lowlands. The mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the highlands to 28 C close to Ziway Lake. The average rainfall inthe region varies from 1,400 to over 2,200 mm/year.iii. The average annual aerial rainfall of the Beressa watershed is 891 mm, with a coefficient variation of 30.6% and standard deviation of 227 mm. For example, months from March to June in Ethiopiahave records of highest temperatures. Mainly, the regional topography and seasonal evolution of the large-scale circulation determined the geographical distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia (Diro et al., 2011).Global and regional change of the weather systems and the topographic variation together with the seasonal cycles are reason or major cause for the spatial variability of . Multi-model average (MMA) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate. Such studies ignored the localized trends of rainfall and temperature, particularly in most highlands of Ethiopia. 2013). (2012) found that due to global climate change the eastern part of Africa, including Ethiopia, was drying out. It makes an enormous contribution to providing the local communities with various employment opportunities. Likewise, as presented in Table2, the distribution of annual rainfall has shown to be very low with high PCI. (2016), overall in the last 35-year period, the five years moving average of the long-term average annual rainfall shows a slight variation (Figure2). Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 December 2019; 10 (4): 799817. The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards. s u m m a r y Due to global warming the climate of central Chile is expected to experience dramatic changes in the 21st century including declining precipitation, earlier streamflow peaks, and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain. : Vasile Scorpan, Marius aranu; Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and, Projection of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Zambia: a CMIP5 study, Analysis of climate extreme indices over the Komadugu-Yobe basin, Lake Chad region: Past and future occurrences, Skill of CMIP5 models in simulating rainfall over Malawi, Modeling climate-smart decision support system (CSDSS) for analyzing water demand of a large-scale rice irrigation scheme, Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow, Temporal Trend Analysis of Meteorological Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in the Inter-Mountain Region of Wyoming, Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Water Balance Using APEX-Paddy Model, Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil. Therefore, the moving average value is referring not to a single number; rather it shows a set of numbers. The minimum and maximum temperature have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively.. 2016). On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. According to Griggs & Noguer (2002), Babel et al. Results of correlation analysis between monthly and seasonal rainfall with crop production were insufficient to conclude the impact of rainfall and temperature on crop production. Generally, as can be seen from Figure3, there has been a high increase in overall temperature, which may result in a decrease in productivity and food insecurity. Afar and parts ofEritrean coastal areas experience rainfall in this period. Global warming has become the greatest barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. The Geological Time Scale and Age Dating Techniques, 2.4. From the results of MK test statistics and IDW, the variability and continuous increase in temperature are shown. Soil management: Soil erosion and degradation reduces crop productivity for traditional farming practices (particularly for mountainous area like the Beressa watershed), as erosion and degradation occurs at a higher rate than fertile soil formation. The steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. However, some parts of thecountry enjoy a temperate climate. The area is characterized by diverse topographic conditions such as mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes. In general, these future projections point towards increases in summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation across both regions. **10% level of significance. Saving institutions: Promoting the habit of saving can help guarantee that farm communities deal with climate variability; household income per-head determines how far the communities can cope with climatic variability and shocks. However, inEthiopia, as it is a highland country, tropical temperature conditions have no full spatialcoverage. Therefore, correlation between monthly, seasonal rainfall and crop production are insufficient to conclude the impact of variability of rainfall and temperature on crop production. A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile, North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. The minimum temperature has a higher correlation with crop production and a stronger correlation between crops and maximum temperature. Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. 2013; Muhire & Ahmed 2015). In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. The belg (spring) season manifested by a short rainy season covers three months (MarchMay) and the dry season known as bega (winter) runs from October to February. . Academia.edu no longer supports Internet Explorer. What causes climate change? (2011) and Manandhar et al. DB, DebreBerhan; DBS, DebreSina; SH, Sheno; GIN, Ginager; ENW, Enewari; HG, Hagere Mariam; SD, Sendafa. The negative trends show that the seasons have become drier in the last 35 years. Topographic map of the Ziway Lake Basin. Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits. 2015). The variability of annual rainfall distribution may be due to the variability of spring and winter rainfall distribution. 2005). In kiremit season, rain is essential but it extends to the bega season during the harvesting stage. Southern part ofEthiopia receives highest records of temperature in autumn and spring following the relativeshift of the sun; whereas in the northern part of the country, summer season is characterized byhigher temperature.It has to be noted that certain seasons should have special considerations. A significant increase in annual mean temperature was observed in all stations, with the magnitude varying from 0.03 C/year and 7.60% in DB station to 0.14 C/year and 31.30% at SD station. 33 days from submission to first decision on average. Based on PCI results, rainfall during the summer and spring seasons is moderately distributed as compared to annual and winter season rainfall. Mean annual temperature varies from over 30 0Cin the tropicallowlands to less than 100c at very high altitudes.The Bale Mountains are among highlands where lowest mean annual temperatures are recorded.The highest mean maximum temperature in the country is recorded in the Afar Depression.Moreover, lowlands of north-western, western and south-eastern Ethiopian experiences meanmaximum temperatures of more than 300C.Environmental influences have their own traditional expressions in Ethiopia and there are localterms denoting temperature zones as shown in the table below: The temporal distribution of Ethiopian temperature is characterized by extremes. Mixed crop-livestock is the production system of the area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the majority of the population. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. Bean, pea, chickpea and lentil production are particularly related to kiremit rains in all stages because these crops are sown in the second week of June. Back to Lesson. The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. In line with Rashid et al. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. In this season, the effect of the northeast trade wind is very muchreduced. Assessing the long-term spatiotemporal rainfall distribution pattern is the most significant component in the climate analysis of a given country, more specifically at the local and regional levels where the effect of climate change is worse. Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres. Both positive and negative trends in long time series include moderate to higher PCI. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. Of spring and winter rainfall distribution may be due to global climate change December. 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